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Is Two safer than One? No!

Paradigms

Provided by the NASA Headquarters Library

The modern study of paradigms began in The Structure of Scientific Revolutions by Thomas Kuhn in 1962 and the work continued by Joel Barker. A paradigm, par`a-dim, n. according to Barker, is theory or dogma that establishes boundaries and regulations. Paradigms filter data and, as a result, often prevent anticipating new developments that come from outside the paradigm.

"What today is impossible to do in your business, but if it could be done would fundamentally change what you do?" asks Joel Barker. This is crucial to understand because of Barker's "going back to Zero Rule": When a paradigm shifts everyone goes back to zero, your past success guarantees nothing. The Swiss invented the quartz movement watch, yet their paradigm for what a watch should be caused them to reject the new design. As a result, their market share fell from 80% in 1968 to less than 10% today. Their past success blinded them to the future of watch-making.

As humans we are inclined to resist new ideas because we live by these established patterns and rules. We tend to filter out information that does not fit our view of the world and we often only see the things we expect to see. This can be a dangerous situation, when faced with the evidence of change we

may ignore it and only when it becomes a major issue will we react. This is very much the case with the UK CAA. They have been presented with the safety data for Single Engine Turbine Operation and rather than believe the statistics they challenge the data. Their paradigm is so strong that even after the reappraisal of the data there is still a refusal to accept the evidence. It is only those people at the periphery of the aviation industry that are able to

see the potential threats and opportunities and are able to challenge the existing patterns.

Though the UK CAA has many strengths it also has serious weaknesses. It is a bureaucratic organisation, decisions are by committee and there is an

One of the paradigms for the United Kingdom (UK) regulatory authority the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) is that two engines are safer than one.

The ability to be able challenge the aviation paradigms in terms of safety is as important as working within the paradigm.

entrenched culture of no personal risk taking. In spite of all the efforts to develop a no blame culture in aviation on a daily operational basis. There are still significant political, social and cultural risks for individuals implementing a change of policy. It is not surprising that there are very few people or perhaps no people in the UK CAA, even at the highest levels, that are able or are prepared to challenge the rules outside the paradigm. These political, social and cultural pressures within regulatory organisations have produced an interesting anomaly. It is quite illogical but the fact is that the CAA is happy to maintain the status quo and accept the existing fatality rate for older technology (Twin Piston Aircraft) and at the same time denying the general public the opportunity to travel on safer newer technologies (Single Engine Turbine Aircraft).
The UK CAA should not forget Barkers going back to zero rule, past success guarantees nothing.